Regional Overview guide

The monthly regional overviews serve two key purposes: to update readers on the most important trends and developments across the region and to act as the latest chapter in an archive. That means the regional overview also serves two readerships: those who want information on recent events and trends and those who want information on a past time period.

While specific details about ACLED’s readership — and their specific information needs — are not yet available, qualitative feedback from the 2023 user survey indicates that 220 users (out of 471 surveyed users) from 64 countries read the regional overviews. Of those 220 users, 100 professional users from 45 countries read this publication on a monthly basis. This includes professionals in the academic, commercial, HDP, media, and public sectors (including government, journalism, multilateral and intergovernmental organizations, non-profits, research institutes, and think tanks) who do work related to development, humanitarian aid, and peacebuilding.

Desired audience: The regional overview should serve as the primary resource for professionals who need data analysis on countries consistently analyzed in this publication. It should also be a vital publication for professionals who do assessments at the regional level and who benefit from ACLED’s historical trend analysis.

The regional overview should provide the reader with a data-driven round-up of what ACLED considers to be the most important trends and developments across the region. 

Each section of the regional overview includes a brief analysis covering the most significant trends and/or developments across the region in the previous month. The starting point should be something that happened in the past month. Consider the following:

Include a novel development or trend, or one that is not novel but ACLED has yet to cover.

• A development could be an escalation in violence. But if your main takeaway is that ‘violence continued,’ look for something new to highlight that may be emblematic of the trend

• Consult the country inclusion tracker to determine when the RO last covered a country.

Focus on violent developments or trends, rather than demonstrations. 

• Focus on violent demonstrations or ones that are not violent but have ramifications wider than national-level policy. Demonstrations against a government policy usually aren’t significant enough to include unless: 

1. Violence breaks out either between demonstrators or with state forces.

2. The demonstrations produce significant national-level developments.

3. The demonstrations have regional or international spillover or react to regional or international developments.

• Do discuss demonstrations in reaction to election results.

Generally, discuss developments that have the potential for ramifications that extend beyond the month’s events.

• E.g., Assassinations of Hamas leadership by Israel. In this example, the individual event is perhaps not novel, but an aspect of that attack may be significant — in this case, it happened in Tehran and amid regional tensions related to Gaza.

• E.g., The military build-up on the border of Ukraine may not have seemed as significant compared the build-up around Crimea in 2014, but actually, it ended up being important ahead of the February 2022 invasion.

This monthly publication can also serve as an opportunity to point to other ACLED publications or projects that can provide the reader with further insight into the broader context.

Recommendations for doing data analysis

Finally, remember that you can incorporate other ACLED tools into your analysis to provide further evidence for your claims:

Conflict Alert System (CAST)
If you expect a trend to continue in the future, use the CAST forecasts to back up your claim.

• In Mexico, the surge in violence during the first half of 2024 will very likely extend during the rest of the year, as ACLED’s Conflict Alert System forecasts indicate elevated levels of violence for the upcoming months. 

Conflict Exposure
If you are discussing events that have had a notable impact on civilians (e.g., a spike in violence between armed groups, mass killings, displacement, or armed curfews/restrictions to mobility), use the population exposure figures to illustrate the extent of such impact.

• In Chiapas, a spike in clashes between the Jalisco New Generation Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel had an unprecedented impact on civilians, as more than 268,000 people were exposed to battles involving the two groups according to ACLED's Conflict Exposure estimates, and at least 580 residents had to flee to Guatemala.

Trendfinder 

• Trends chart: This chart lets us quickly determine if weeks during the month show anomalous activity.

  • In Haiti, the beginning of the MSS mission operations and the arrival of a second contingent of Kenyan police officers led to a higher-than-average level of violence between 20 and 26 July, according to ACLED’s Trendfinder.

• Country change level map: This map indicates the levels of change in activity at the country level.

• Exchanges between the IDF and Hezbollah continue to deteriorate the security situation in Lebanon and Israel, as both countries recorded large increases in violence, according to ACLED’s Trendfinder.  

Main visual 

The interactive map is a visual that summarizes the overall state of political violence and demonstrations in the region. This section is automatically updated each month and requires no input from authors.

Timeline 

This is a timeline of political and violent events during the reporting period. Political events are non-violent developments, including ones coded as strategic developments. All Protest and Riot events go in the demonstration section. Each timeline should include up to eight events written clearly and concisely, adhering to the following guidelines:

• Present tense

• Active voice (subject - verb - object)

• Complete sentences (don’t omit articles like ‘the’)

• Aim for 10 words per event, but do not exceed 15

• Exceptionally, for the sake of brevity, do not use the word ‘reportedly’ for fatalities

• Be sure you’re only talking about one isolated event in a descriptive manner; avoid discussing causality or other context

• Do not repeat the country name

• No more than eight events per category

• Date and Month (E.g., 29 Nov.)

• Country

• Refer to just one administrative level, unless more information is necessary for clarity

• Use abbreviations on the first reference, unless they are not spelled out in the rest of the report

  • If not possible due to the length of the name or if the acronym is not generally known to a regional audience, use a phrase or characterization with the acronym to provide context.

• Try not to use the same structure and style in all events. For example:

  • Suspected US airstrikes kill 40 militants in Bakool.

  • Forty militants are killed in US airstrikes on al-Shabaab position in Bakool.

  • Suspected US airstrikes hit al-Shabaab positions in Bakool, killing 40 militants.

Sections

Structure:  After you’ve done the necessary data analysis, use this structure to guide you in drafting (see the example in the Annex for further guidance).

• Start with the facts. (Here's what happened, very briefly.)*

• Then, move into providing immediate context. (Was this expected? Is this development novel? Is it part of a broad trend but especially notable this month? etc.)** 

• Finally, provide a broader context that touches on what may be underlying developments (it could be related to these broader trends). If relevant, this may be a forward-looking conclusion based on the aforementioned findings.

*Tip: If you find that you’re starting a paragraph with “Violence continued in…” it’s likely that you don’t actually need that first sentence. Go straight into what’s new.  

**Note: If at any point you make a claim, use the data to provide evidence. If it is not an ACLED data-based claim, use external sources.

Word count: Each section should not exceed 200 words, and there should be no more than six analyses for each region. When including a regional developments section, the word count can be doubled, around 400 words, in place of two separate sections. However, in all cases, the total word count of the regional overview should be around 1,200 words and not exceed 1,300. 

• • NOTE: Drafts over 1,500 words will not be accepted and must be resubmitted before review.

Titles: The section title should follow the title guidance in the style guide. Notable, it should be concise, not include jargon, and provide an immediate understanding of the most significant takeaway from the paragraph. Please consider:

• Titles and section headings should always be written in sentence case.

• Titles should be short. Aim for 60, but do not exceed 100 characters.

• A title does not have to represent the full breadth of the analysis or topics discussed in a piece or section.

• Titles should say the thing that is different, new, or trending.

• Titles should be sentences rather than descriptions. Make sure the title includes a verb.

  • E.g., Opposition supporters clash with police forces across Togo

The overall title of the Regional Overviews includes the month of publication. For example, the Regional Overview covering 1-31 December 2024 is titled “Regional Overview: January 2025.” The table of contents title will say the month of coverage: “In this Regional Overview covering December 2024” and the interactive map should state the full date range of the data available for the month at the time of publication. The latter point is added to ensure that readers are clear on the dates of coverage for months that are missing some final days (i.e.,  months when the 1st falls after Friday). 

Flourish visuals

One of the six sections will also contain a Flourish visual produced by the research analyst team. Authors are encouraged to suggest which trend or section might be a good candidate for a Flourish visual, but input from the authors is not mandatory. Selecting the section that will contain the Flourish visual is based on these criteria: 

• • The section refers to regional trends (e.g., farmer demonstrations across Europe)

  • The section outlines unprecedented trends never seen before (e.g., Ukrainian strikes within Russia’s internationally recognized territory)

  • The section explains how a significant development triggered a change in disorder patterns (e.g. a rise in violent demonstrations in Bangladesh after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina referred to demonstrators as Razakar sympathizers)

  • The section explains the evolution of a crisis and how it has reached concerning levels that month (e.g., gang violence in Haiti)

  • The section explains a shift in conflict/demonstration patterns compared to a previous period (e.g., ADF expansion toward the south of North Kivu region in the DRC)

 Prior to publication, the ROs undergo a series of reviews by the Analysis and External Affairs teams to ensure the clarity and accuracy of the publication. The Senior Analyst is responsible for addressing and responding to comments and edits in a timely manner, with coordination and collaboration from relevant members of the GDC team. 

Note on authorship: Credited authors have made substantial intellectual contributions to the Regional Overview as assessed by the Senior Analyst (or coordinating author).

Political events

• 11 Nov. | Greece The police shooting of a Roma teenager sparks riots

• 12 Nov. | France Over 180,000 people demonstrate against antisemitism across the country

• 17 Nov. | Spain Socialists form minority government amid mass protests

• 22 Nov. | Netherlands The far-right party wins the most seats in parliament

• 25 Nov. | Italy People demonstrate against femicide across the country

• 30 Nov. | Finland The government temporarily closes border crossings with Russia

Violent events

• 6 Nov. | Georgia Russian troops kill a Georgian civilian near the boundary with South Ossetia

• 8 Nov. | Ukraine A Russian missile strikes a civilian ship entering Odesa port

• 13 Nov. | Greece Coast guards beat 23 Afghan migrants and push their boat toward Turkey 

• 18 Nov. | Armenia Alleged Azerbaijani forces shoot and injure a serviceman near the Nakhchivan exclave

• 23 Nov. | Ireland The stabbing of five people in Dublin sparks anti-immigrant riots

• 25 Nov. | Ukraine A massive Russian drone strike targets Kyiv on Holodomor Remembrance Day 

Oman: The Islamic State carries out its first-ever attack in the sultanate 

On 15 July, three Islamic State (IS) militants stormed a Shiite mosque in the suburbs of Muscat, Oman’s capital, and opened fire on the worshippers, killing five and injuring 28, including rescuers and paramedics. The attack took place in a mosque frequented mostly by South Asian nationals who had gathered on the eve of Ashura, a day when Shiite Muslims commemorate the death of the third Shiite Imam, Husayn ibn Ali. Omani police forces responded to the attack and killed the three militants, in the first battle event recorded in Oman since ACLED’s coverage of the country began in 2016.

The attack came as a surprise in this otherwise peaceful and stable sultanate. Although the three IS militants were all Omani nationals, the group had never officially announced an ‘Oman Province’ as part of its organization. It remains unclear whether the militants acted independently or whether the IS province in neighboring Yemen was involved in the attack. This attack followed other high-profile IS attacks in Iran in January 2024 and in Russia in March 2024, as the group seems to be trying to remain relevant by opening new fronts beyond its original foothold in Iraq and Syria.

Niger: Escalating violence in Tillaberi and worsening security post-coup

Battles between military forces and pro-government militias against Islamist militants affiliated with the Sahel Province of the Islamic State (IS Sahel) and JNIM rose by over 65% in Tillaberi region in the past month. These battles were highest in the northwestern Tera department, where IS Sahel clashed with military forces and carried out attacks targeting civilians. They were especially fatal in Tillaberi last month compared to the monthly average over the past year. In one of the deadliest incidents, IS Sahel militants reportedly killed 27 soldiers near Doungourou on 22 July.

The rising violence in Tillaberi highlights the complexity of Niger's escalating security crisis since the coup d'état that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July 2023. The coup marked a drastic turning point as the new junta allied itself with al-Qaeda and IS-affiliated groups in Mali and Burkina Faso and expelled French armed forces.(1) IS Sahel and JNIM have exploited the weakened security apparatus and expanded their influence in the country. In the year following the coup, the lethality of attacks by jihadist groups surged significantly: total reported fatalities resulting from political violence more than doubled, rising by 121% compared to 12 months prior. Civilian deaths from direct targeting rose by 34%. 

Uganda: Youth-led demonstrations rise following inspiration from Kenya

Demonstrations in Uganda spiked last month as the youth used online mobilization tactics similar to those used during the Kenyan Finance Bill protests to organize marches against corruption and perceived governance challenges.(2)Demonstrations were concentrated in Kampala where ACLED records six demonstrations associated with marches to parliament to voice grievances against the government — notably calling for the resignation of parliamentary speaker Anita Among(3) who the US recently sanctioned for corruption.(4) While most demonstrations were composed of youth and students, the opposition National Unity Platform joined some of the marches in solidarity with the grievances raised by the so-called Gen-Z movement.(5) Police arrested dozens of demonstrators in the country’s largest protest movement since December 2021 during a wave of unrest over public service delivery. Although over 80% of demonstrations remained peaceful, police made numerous arrests and disrupted nearly half of the demonstrations. 

Venezuela: Disputed re-election of Maduro triggers demonstrations nationwide

On 28 July, the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) declared incumbent Nicolás Maduro the winner of the presidential election with 51.2% of the votes, defeating Edmundo González.(6) However, the opposition claimed the results were manipulated, citing the arrest of at least 101 members of González’s team,(7) and an attack on an opposition leader’s vehicle.(8) Through an informal parallel tallying process by an election observer, the opposition claims González won the election with 67% of the votes, based on around 80% of the votes.(9) Several Latin American leaders condemned Maduro’s claim to the presidency,  In response, Maduro expelled seven diplomatic delegations from Caracas and broke diplomatic relations with Peru.(10)

The election results sparked widespread unrest contributing to a nearly three times increase in demonstrations in July compared to the previous month. Over 150 demonstrations were recorded and while mostly peaceful, at least 28% were violent. Protests were also heavily quashed by security forces and pro-government militias heavily quashed the demonstrations. The NGOs Provea and Foro Penal reported that by 7 August at least 24 people had been killed and 1,229 arrested, while the government reported up to 2,229 arrests.(11) As national and international tensions are unlikely to abate, the death toll and number of detentions may continue to climb.

(1) Mark Banchereau, ‘US hands over its last military base in Niger to the ruling junta,’ Associated Press, 7 August 2024 

(2) Rodney Muhumuza, ‘An online protest movement exposes corruption in Uganda. Officials and others are rattled,’ Associated Press, 4 March 2024; Emmanuel Mutaizibwa, ‘Anti-corruption protests stress test Judiciary,’ Monitor, 27 July 2024 

(3) Elias Biryabarema and Aaron Ross, ‘Uganda police arrest more people protesting corruption,’ Reuters, 25 July 2024 

(4) Julius Barigaba, ‘No respite for the besieged Ugandan Speaker Anita Among,’ The East African, 2 June 2024 

(5)The Observer, ‘Why Uganda’s Gen Z protests are falling short: A closer look at the obstacles,’ 7 August 2024 

(6) Vanessa Buschschlüter, ‘Venezuela's Maduro declared winner in disputed vote,’ BBC News, 29 July 2024 

(7) Ronny Rodríguez Rosas, ‘La campaña cierra en Venezuela con más de 100 detenciones políticas,’ Artículo 14, 26 July 2024 

(8) El Pitazo, ‘María Corina Machado denuncia atentado: vandalizaron los vehículos y les cortaron los frenos,’ 18 July 2024 

(9) Tiago Rogero, ‘How Venezuela’s opposition proved its election win: ‘A brilliant political move,’’ The Guardian, 10 August 2024 

(10) El Pitazo, ‘Gobierno de Maduro exige a siete países retirar de inmediato a su personal diplomático de Venezuela,’ 29 July 2024 

(11) Euronews, ‘Al menos 24 muertos y más de 2.200 detenidos en las protestas contra los resultados en Venezuela,’ 7 August 2024