Conflict Watchlist guide

The ACLED Conflict Watchlist is a publication highlighting 10 countries or regions that are expected to experience critical developments during the year. It is published annually in December.

The list of countries is proposed by the Head of Analysis in consultation with the Analysis Manager, taking into account ACLED’s strategic priorities, and is then approved by the Executive team. Senior Analysts are responsible for drafting each contribution according to individual expertise. This task may be delegated to a member of the Global Data Collection team where relevant.

Each report should be between 900 and 1200 words long and consist of two main sections:

• An overview of the conflict so far, including a summary of the overarching narrative of the conflict, the main conflict actors and drivers, and a review of significant developments in the previous year. Authors should use ACLED data extensively in the text, highlighting important data trends in the prior year. (up to 500 words).

• An assessment of potential development and trajectories for the year ahead (‘What to watch for in 2026’). This section should include prospects for conflict resolution, escalation or spillover potential, and other relevant political events or influences that might influence conflict dynamics, both domestically and abroad. It needs to be forward-looking and focused on possible developments in the conflict you can identify considering its past trajectory, political, social, economic, and geopolitical developments that will have or may have relevance for the conflict, and your expert view on alternative scenarios (up to 700 words).

Authors are encouraged to highlight one sentence in ‘What to watch for in 2026’ that will serve as the report's main takeaway point.